Motormouth: COE prices will peak in November 2026 and then dip
COE prices will peak in November 2026 and then dip.
[Story by guest columnist Vincent Ng]
COE (certificate of entitlement) bidding in Singapore this year will be at its most active in November 2026 and push prices up, but COE premiums for cars should go down after that.
By systematically controlling the number of COEs in a part called "Redistribution from identified guaranteed deregistrations and injections", the Singapore Government via Land Transport Authority (LTA) has successfully controlled the number of COEs available for bidding, i.e. flatten the supply.
The quantity in question went from 3,636 certs to 3,081, then 2,258, and now 1,381 in the current quota. The return of COEs from deregistration of vehicles is also based on the average of the last 12 months.
With these two mechanisms in place, the COE quota is definitely not going to expand in the short term, or contract for that matter. .
Demand, however, is another thing that the LTA did not want to control. Back in 2013 February, the Government controlled demand by introducing loan curbs. The result - COE premiums softened immediately. By systematically restricting supply without a corresponding action in modulating demand, COE premiums are going to climb and climb.
The current scenario is the same as 2025, with EV rebate cuts looming on January 1 of the next year. The playbook is the same - buy now or pay $10,000 more. Car buyers dash in. Bidding becomes more aggressive by motor dealers, each trying to prevent competitors from catching up, with all realising that market share is conquered by sheer senseless COE bidding.
Looking at my crystal ball, COE bidding activity will peak in November 2026 at the latest, and thereafter COE premiums will dip.
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